1/13/22 – MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY


December CPI up 7.0 percent year-on-year, highest increase since June 1982

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, and was up 7.0 percent year-on-year, the highest annual rise since June 1982.  The index less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December following a 0.5-percent increase in November, and was up 5.5 percent year-on-year, for the highest annual rise since February 1991.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

 

Small Business Optimism Index edges up in December despite inflation challenges

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in December to 98.9, up 0.5 points from November. Twenty-two percent report inflation as the single most important problem operating their business, a 20-point increase from the beginning of 2021 and the highest level since Q4 1981. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months increased three points to a net negative 35%. Owners remain pessimistic about future economic conditions as this indicator has declined 23 points over the past six months. Forty-nine percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, an increase of one point from November.

https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-owners-reporting-inflation-as-biggest-problem-highest-since-1981/

 

Purchase loan apps rise 2 percent from previous week, but down 17 percent year-on-year

The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications increased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans rising 2 percent (but down 17 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity slipping 0.1 percent (and down 50 percent year-on-year). The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased to 3.52 percent from 3.33 percent.

https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/january/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

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