MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications fell 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. Purchase loan applications declined 6 percent and were down 44 percent year-on-year. This is the second week this index is at a 28-year low. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 74 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 8.1 percent of total applications. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.71 percent from 6.62 percent.
Case-Shiller Index fell for sixth consecutive month in December, but up 5.8 percent year-on-year
The cooling in home prices on the Case-Shiller Index that began in June 2022 continued through year end, as December marked the sixth consecutive month of declines for the National Composite Index. The National Composite declined by -0.8% in December, and now stands 4.4% below its June peak. Year-on-year, the National Composite still rose by 5.8%, but declined in San Francisco (-4.2%) and Seattle (-1.8%).
Residential construction spending edges down 0.6 percent in January, down 6.1 percent year-on-year
Construction spending during January 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,825.7 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised December estimate of $1,827.5 billion. The January figure is 5.7 percent above the January 2022 estimate of $1,726.6 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $847.4 billion in January, 0.6 percent below the revised December estimate of $852.1 billion and down 6.1 percent year-on-year.
