6/18: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

June builder confidence jumps 21 points to 58 as housing leads recovery

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 21 points to 58 in June, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI index gauging current sales conditions jumped 21 points to 63, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months surged 22 points to 68 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers vaulted 22 points to 43.



May housing starts rebound 4.3 percent from April, down 23.2 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 974,000. This is 4.3 percent above the revised April estimate of 934,000, but is down 23.2 percent year-on-year.



May building permits rebound 14.4 percent from April, down 8.8 percent year-on-year

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,220,000.  This is 14.4 percent above the revised April rate of 1,066,000, but is down 8.8 percent year-on-year.



May new home mortgage apps rebound 26 percent from April, up 10.9 percent year-on-year

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for May 2020 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 26 percent from April and 10.9 percent compared from a year ago. Based on data from the BAS, MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 672,000 units in May.



Purchase loan apps rise again to highest level in 11 years as rates dip to lowest in survey history

The Market Composite Index increased 8.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans rising 4 percent (and up 21 percent year-on-year to the highest level in 11 years) and refinance activity rising 10 percent (and up 106 percent year-on-year).  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 3.30 percent from 3.38 percent, the lowest level in survey history.


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