7/12: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

CPI up 0.1 percent in June and 1.6 percent year-on-year

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in May.  Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.  The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 in June, its largest monthly increase since January 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months.



Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes indicate rate drop likely soon

Although nearly all committee members agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent at this meeting, they generally agreed that risks and uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook had intensified and many judged that additional policy accommodation would be warranted if they continued to weigh on the economic outlook.



Small business optimism slips in June, due largely to more uncertainty

America’s small business owners’ optimism took a modest downturn in June, slipping 1.7 points to 103.3. While optimism remains at historically high levels, the June figure reverses the gain posted in May, with six components falling, three improving, and one unchanged. The Uncertainty Index rose substantially, increasing seven points to the highest level since March 2017.


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