MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
CPI up 1.3 percent in June and 9.1 percent year-on-year
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.3 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.0 percent in May, and was up 9.1 percent over the last 12 months, the highest annual rate since November 1981. The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food being the largest contributors. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.7 percent in June, after increasing 0.6 percent in the preceding two months, and was up 5.9 percent over the last 12 months.
Small Business Optimism Index drops another 3.6 points in June
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased seven points to a net negative 61%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year survey. Expectations for better conditions have worsened every month this year.
Purchase loan applications fall 4 percent from previous week and 18 percent year-on-year
The Market Composite Index for mortgage applications decreased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans falling 4 percent (and down 18 percent year-on-year) and refinance activity rising 2 percent (but down 80 percent year-on-year). The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 9.6 percent of total applications. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained at 5.74 percent.