MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
New home sales fall 12.6 percent in July and 29.6 percent year-on-year
July new home sales fell to their lowest annualized level since Jan. 2016 (511k), while months of inventory rose to the highest since March 2009 (10.9 months). July’s sales were down 12.6 percent from June and 29.6 percent year-on-year. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 464,000, the highest since March 2008 and up 28 percent year-on-year. While average and median home prices of new homes sold are down from their April highs, year-on-year they’re still up 18.3 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively.
August economic index slips to 45.0 as U.S. business activity continues to slow
The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 45.0 in August, down from 47.7 in July (50 is the split between growth and decline), and indicated a second successive monthly decrease in total business activity. Service sector firms recorded the steeper rate of decline, as activity fell sharply, while goods producers saw a modest drop in output. The decrease in output was the fastest seen since May 2020 and solid overall. The rate of contraction also outpaced anything recorded outside of the initial pandemic outbreak since the series began nearly 13 years ago.
Pending home sales slip 1.0 percent in July, down 19.9 percent year-on-year
Pending home sales dropped slightly by 1.0% from June but were down 19.9% year-on-year. It was the second straight monthly decline and the eighth in the last nine months. Pending sales fell in three of four major regions, with the West posting a small increase. Compared to the prior year, contract signings declined by double digits in each region, with pending sales in the West down 30%.