Although the pandemic fueled a slowdown in single-family housing the slowdown is not lower-density markets as single-family housing is less pronounced. In more affordable and lower-density areas single-family housing is blooming.
According to LMB Journal, the HBGI is a quarterly measurement of building conditions across the country and uses county-level information about single- and multifamily permits to gauge housing construction growth in various urban and rural geographies.
The lowest single-family year-over-year growth rates in the first quarter of 2023 occurred in large metro core counties, which posted a 25.6% decline. All large and small metro areas also had double-digit negative growth rates, while rural markets (defined as micro counties and non-metro counties) recorded negative growth rates in the single digits.
Over the past four years, rural markets have exhibited particular strength. The rural single-family home building market share has increased from 9.4% at the end of 2019 to 12% by the first quarter of 2023.
The first quarter HBGI shows the following market shares in single-family home building:
15.7% in large metro core counties
24.5% in large metro suburban counties
9.5% in large metro outlying counties
28.6% in small metro core counties
9.7% in small metro outlying areas
7.5% in micro counties
4.5% in non-metro/micro counties